Footy finals: the pain of second prize

Footy season is at an end 😪 but there’s time for data yet. Long may it reign!

Warning: Here is where you may want to jump off this bus if you’re not a footy…. or Swans or Parramatta… or data fan!

Last week we looked at Geelong’s mighty AFL grand final exploits and today we turn to Sydney, who have new friends in the NRL’s consolation prize winners, the Parramatta Eels. The adjectives used to describe the former’s effort haven’t been pretty, with feeble, disastrous and agonising among them.

So where did it all go wrong for the Swans?

The coach has fessed up to the blunder of selecting injured player Sam Reid. And maybe rampant Geelong were just too good.

Or could it be… yes, perhaps… plenty of people said it…. they played their final a week early!

What’s that about then? Let’s check it out.

The tough preliminary – playing the final a week early

When a team has an unnervingly close match, there’s a line of thought that the physical and emotional energy consumed leaves the players drained for the following week. Supremely fit and skilful individuals are suddenly a quivering mess, for at least 8 days the theory would seem to suggest.

This was the case for Sydney, who snuck home in a 1-point win over Collingwood in the preliminary final, while the Eels had a less dramatic, but definitely tough, come-from-behind 4-point win over North Queensland. Can we accept that this was the killer blow for either team? Let’s focus on the Swans.

Again using grand finals since 1970 as our data set, there’s a fair case for the Bloods as we look first at the overall picture.

The summary table below shows the balance of results in a team’s next game following a comfortable win (19+ points), a close win (7-18), and a thriller (1-6). Footy matches being a two-horse race, we expect the numbers to hover around the 50/50 mark, and that’s what we see for the most part. However, when it comes to preliminary finals there’s a pronounced 59/41 swing towards a follow-up loss after the ‘thrillers’. (Indeed, more so after ‘close’ finals, but let’s stick to the script.)

The finals system has changed over time however, going from a five-team to eight-team series in 1994. The significance of this is that previously the other grand final team used to earn a week off while the other two remaining teams slugged out the preliminary, meaning valuable rest that primed them for the grand final. Since 1994, both grand finalists have played a preliminary the week before, resulting in a more equivalent preparation.

If we view the data through these different lenses

A new picture emerges, as these charts show.

The chart on the left shows 1970 to 1993, a period in which teams just didn’t seem to be able to back up from a tight win; in fact not once (0 of 4 instances). Yet since then, the capability has improved to the extent of reaching par (7 of 13 instances), shown on the chart to the right over the period 1994 to 2021. The older finals system may well have played into the hands of the resting grand finalist, waiting to prey on their wilted opponent.

If we change the lens a bit more, with the thinking that the modern game is so different to years gone by that only say the last ten years count, we get a yet more interesting picture. If anything, teams are becoming better at following up from a close game, with 4 of 6 winners of preliminary nailbiters still taking the flag.

So Sydney don’t really have any excuses – grand final day really was just diabolical. Likewise Parramatta, though in fairness no one doubts Penrith’s current standing well above the NRL pack. Oh well, in either case, a cluster of fans at the SCG and in Townsville respectively had the night of their life, soaking in the preliminary win they’ll remember for ages.

And there’s always next year!

Of course this is a small data set, good to demonstrate a point and we don’t hang our hats on it.

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