Visualisation in cricket: Putting data to the test (match)
If you follow cricket, you know that England’s recent form has set the test world on fire. How do you rate their achievements?
In anticipation of their series against South Africa starting this week, we’ve put together a data visualisation to determine just how highly we should be rating their recent achievements in the sport. Read on to compare notes.
The eleven turning it up to eleven
England's men's test team have set an incredible bar in attacking cricket over the northern summer. Describing themselves as "playing like rock stars", their record of four wins from four test matches is impressive enough, but the aggression and poise in chasing difficult run targets is unprecedented.
So, with this author being the resident native Australian of the team (we have solid representation across the cricketing globe at White Box), it’s in my DNA to do what it takes to discredit English sporting achievements. However, as data analysts, we’re often challenged to put emotion and bias to one side in the pursuit of the beautiful truth. With gritted teeth, here goes.
First, let’s give context to the results that England has produced in recent weeks
If you’ve made it this far then you probably know your cricket, but it’s important to note that historically, chasing more than 200 in the final innings of a test is considered challenging; on only 22% of the occasions that a team has faced a 200+ target have they successfully chased it down.
That said, over the last few months, England successfully chased targets of more than 250 four times. Not only that but they did it with increasing ease, on the last occasion scoring 378 at a rate of 4.98 runs per over, against a high quality Indian bowling attack.
That’s an impressive stat no doubt, so my task is to cut it down to size probe the results thoughtfully to ensure that it looks like a fluke measures up to robust standards.
We can use historical data to compare notable points in time
Context is everything, and the contemporary cricketing context is ever more limited overs. Since 1971, when one day internationals (ODIs) arrived on the scene, cricket has been on the hunt for a faster fix. After that first ODI, a 60-over affair, the benchmark became 50 overs; followed by the advent of 20-over games in the mid noughties (T20); and more recently The Hundred, a 100-ball innings shaving a mere 20 deliveries off T20s, because why not?
Throughout those developments, as the urgency of scoring increased, run rates, or RPO (runs per over, typically measured against 6-ball overs) have been on the rise.
Looking at the visual below, we can see that in 1948, when Don Bradman’s “Invincibles” made light work of 404 runs (RPO 3.53), they greatly exceeded the style of the day (RPO 2.33).
When Gordon Greenidge ran amok for the West Indies in 1984 pursuing 344 (RPO 5.19), it was a standout in a landmark series of attacking play. This was even in light of ODIs bumping up general expectations to a two-format RPO of 3.56.
Jumping to the current era, we can see that not only ODIs (RPO 5.41) but T20s (RPO 8.08) have exploded possibilities, boasting run rates once considered stratospheric.
And there’s my hook – England have simply performed the new normal!
The test match run rate of 5.46 looks great in a historical context, but is in fact shaded by present day standards, with a three-format RPO of 5.47.
So, is England’s rock stardom myth busted?
Not at all.
Why?
Firstly, while limited over formats have enhanced thinking around attacking cricket, there are a number of match conditions that curtail such fast scoring in test cricket. Space prevents us from exploring that deeply here, but amongst them are pitch conditions, light regulations, fielding restrictions, and no ball and wide rules.
Secondly, we would never rely on such a simple multi-format average, essentially created from a fruit salad of stats rather than by comparing apples with apples. In a thorough analysis we would take a more scientific approach. A good start would be looking at those factors mentioned in point one, where we might give weightings to them so that a multi-format average is more balanced and plausible.
In a nutshell, by compiling the data, producing key metrics, questioning them, and questioning them again, the evidence shows England’s recent style has been revelatory, and a wonderful thing for test cricket. They’ve shaken the establishment, redefined boundaries, and energised their fans – that’s rock enough for me.
Finally, a quick segmentation backs it up
All the significant run chases throughout history are shown in the scatter plot below, with the four focus matches highlighted with sizing.
It’s plain as day that those performances, two of which are owned by England, are in a league of their own.
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